NBA Finals Games 5 and 6

Tonight is the first elimination game of the Finals, as Boston travels back to L.A for a game 6 and a possible game 7. The Celtics game 5 win marked the first time in this series that a team has won two straight, but whatever momentum they have, I suspect, will die off as they head back west. These teams have been evenly matched throughout, with Boston having only scored 2 more points than L.A. for the series. One of the teams was figured to win 2 of the 3 in Boston, and it makes sense that the home team did so. Give how well the Celtics shot (56%), and how much every Laker other than Kobe struggled (35% from the field), the Lakers should not have lost by only 6 points, but 16. The reason the game was so close was Boston's glut of turnovers ( 17, 7 by Rondo), and the disparity between the teams on the offensive glass, where the Lakers had twice as many boards. The turnovers were unusual for Rondo, who has a knack for passing effectively out of crazy spots, and while costly, are the price paid for pushing the tempo, which the Celtics must do. Boston's offense ran smoothly all night, with good looks spread around. Allen had his way with Fisher, Rondo hit some jumpers mixed with some sick layups, KG was 6/11 for 18 points, and Peirce thrived in isolation. The Celtics run isos better than any team in the league. Peirce get the ball in his spot, and his teammates clear out extremely well. Sometimes, Peirce and his defender will be the only 2 on their half of the court. When Boston is making shots, their brand of basketball is beautiful to watch. The trouble with having 4 go-to-guys is the offense can get choppy in a hurry, for example, Rondo's abilities do not lend themselves to Peirce in iso, but last night they played like a team in sync with one another. They did work.

The Lakers (other than Kobe) struggled to score throughout the game. After Kobe's 38, the only other Laker who scored in double figures was Gasol (12 points, 5/12 shooting). Other than some fine work on the offensive glass, where he had 7 rebounds, Gasol was quiet on offense. He was only 4 of 8 at the rim , and he only took 3 of the long jumpers we saw him hit with regularity in the first few games. The length displayed in those games has been negated by Boston in the last 2. To be sure, a main reason for that is Bynum's injury. Bynum had only 6 points and no defensive rebounds in game 5, sorely lacking lateral quickness and the ability to be in the right spot defensively or offensively. Boston was 12/16 at the rim because the Lakers didn't have the forceful presence they needed. In comparison, the Lakers only shot 8/17 at the goal. The Laker big men were the one distinct advantage for the Lakers over the Celtics, and if the 7-footers don't play better tonight, the team in green will be hanging its 18th banner. For their bigs to play better, the Lakers have to make crisp passes and use the player movement crucial to the triangle offense. They assisted on 39% of the baskets while the Celtics assisted on 53%. The Lakers also must shoot better, particularly Fisher and Artest (combined 4/18 from the field in Game 5). After the first game, the Lakers have not been getting near as many easy baskets or attempts because they have missed the threes the Celtics begged them to take. The Celtics have forced someone other than Kobe to beat them, and Fisher and Artest have not stepped up in the last 2 games from the perimeter. From the bench, Odom has failed to step up as well. Some nights, he hasn't even shown up. If Bynum is going to be hampered by his knee, Odom will have to play better for the Lakers to have a chance. Defensively, the bigs have to be in a spot to alter shots. Kobe had their only block in game 5, after they had so many in the beginning of the series. I tend not to criticize effort, because who is not trying hard at this point of the playoffs, but the Celtics played like the more desperate team. The one Laker not at fault was Bryant. He scored 23 consecutive points, at one point had as many points as the rest of his team, grabbed a loose ball after Fisher somehow won a jump with KG, and almost got a rebound off a free-throw miss in the final minutes.

I expect the Lakers to win tonight to send the series to a game 7. The Laker roll players play better at home, and after a game 5 where the refs let the two teams play, I think the officiating will be reminiscent of the first two games of the series, which benefits the Lakers' style of play. When the refs allow play to get chippy, the advantage swings in favor of the Celtics. As a basketball fan without a rooting interest, I would love to see a game 7; we haven't seen one in the finals since 2005. There is a lot at stake for the Lakers tonight. The championship, obviously, is the task at hand and most important, but also Kobe's legacy, Jackson's future, and a chance to threepete are all on the line tonight. The Lakers will play like it.

Enjoy

Dr. Bob

I used data from Hoopdata.com for the report. Go check it out, they have some good stuff.