NBA Finals. A Game 7 Prediction

Tonight is game 7. One game. The finals are no longer a series; it all comes down to this. I don't think we'll see any momentum carry over. The players will play their hearts out, and I'm expecting a hell of a game.

While its just one game, there are a few adjustments I see for the Celtics. Adjustments are needed not just because they lost game 6 and Perk is out, but also because you play differently in the last game of the NBA season. The most needed adjustment is they absolutely must get to the hoop, which is getting easier as Bynum continues to hurt. In game 2 they took way too many jumpers, took too long passing around the perimeter, settling for horrible shot clock ending shots. They didn't take it to the teeth of the Lakers defense. The Lakers had Bryant playing the passing lanes, seemingly miles from his man, Rondo. Bryant will play the same way tonight. Boston needs Rondo driving to the hoop, and they need to use him in some pick and rolls. If Rondo plays well, the Celtics play well. KG needs to attack Gasol like he did in the two wins in Boston. KG will see a lot of minutes tonight, and he will be amped. He'll get his shots, and disrupt on defense. The Celtics need to exploit the mismatch of Fisher on Allen, because Allen has been able to post Fisher all series. He will try to do the same tonight. If Boston can get good movement and take it to the rack, the passing lanes will open. Allen will be making his threes tonight as well, when the pressure is on he can be lights out. I expect Wallace to get the starting nod in place of Perk because he matches up much better with Gasol (and Davis is better off the bench). Offensively, this will be a benefit for the Celts because 'Sheed spaces the floor, and he's been here before. They will look to push off defensive stops, which has been crucial in their wins.

On defense, the Celtics will look to put T. Allen on Bryant as often as possible. With Perkins out, they may go small at times and keep T. Allen out there. Rasheed is going to have to, somehow, make Gasol's touches as far away from the basket as possible. I don't see this working very effectively, but its the best option for Boston. They will be active, and try to not let the role players develop any rhythm.

The Lakers need to protect the paint and force the Celtics into jumpshots. They will continue having Bryant operate as a free safety, try to disrupt Rondo's vision. They will try to not let Garnett get going, and Artest will continue to harass Pierce. If they can keep the Celtics out of the paint, they will win. On offense, the Lakers will continue to involve Gasol. I look for them to try to get KG into foul trouble, which would prove devastating to the Celtics. Their role players are much better at home, and must knock down their shots. Look for their shooters in the corners which is a shorter 3 point shot. Kobe will come out shooting, but should do so within the flow of the offense. When he takes the shots he should and distributes properly, the Lakers are nearly unbeatable. What he must avoid is trying to take over the game by scoring, when he does so the rest of the Lakers stand around on offense and defense.

The officials (hopefully) will let the players play, and I expect it will be a tight game. Coaches will shorten rotations, and starters will play big minutes. I think the Celtics do get to the hoop, and Ray Ray to shoot well from 3. Allen will get the easy buckets on Fisher, and KG will come out aggressively. Pierce will be Pierce; there is a reason his nickname is The Truth. With the Boston defense swarming like it did in Boston, Kobe will be less efficient than he was in game 6. Pau will get his tonight, but the role players won't shoot well enough to bail Kobe and Pau out (with the exception of Fisher).

I think the Celtics win, and they get another victory over the Lakers in this historic rivalry.